Pre-election polls in Zambia

Jeremy Seekings and Hangala Siachiwena gave pre-election presentations on data from two pre-election polls: First, the December 2020 Afrobarometer poll (see IDCPPA WP 27) and, second, the first wave (in June 2020) of the Zambian Election Panel Study (ZEPS). ZEPS is a three-wave panel study of voters, mostly in Zambia’s Lusaka, Eastern and Muchinga provinces. ZEPS is a collaboration between the IDCPPA, the University of Gothenberg and researchers in Zambia and elsewhere. The polls suggested that support for incumbent president Lungu had softened very substantially since 2016-17 in these crucial provinces. The polls pointed to a victory for the opposition United Party for National Development and its leader Hakainde Hichilema (‘HH’). The actual election results were reassuringly consistent with the pre-election polls.