Research Seminar - Was South Africa’s 2024 election a win for democracy? Highlights from Afrobarometer’s election panel survey.

Abstract

South Africa's 2024 elections ended the ANC's 30-year parliamentary majority, forcing the formation of a coalition government. This presentation analyses data from Afrobarometer's first panel survey, which tracked the opinions of 1,618 South Africans before and after the election to assess the democratic impact of this historic shift. The findings reveal a dramatic post-election resurgence in democratic confidence. Optimism about the country's direction nearly tripled, while support for democracy rose by 10 percentage points and satisfaction with its functioning climbed by more than 20 points. These shifts were largely consistent across demographic groups and political affiliations. While these results suggest that meaningful electoral competition can revitalise democratic attitudes even after long periods of decline, new data will reveal whether the coalition government has sustained this optimism through improved governance and service delivery.

Bio

Dr. Rorisang (Rori) Lekalake is the Senior Analyst/Methodologist for Afrobarometer, where she leads initiatives to strengthen the organisation’s methodological rigor and to expand its analytical capacity. She previously served as the Afrobarometer's assistant project manager for Southern Africa, based at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation. Prior to rejoining Afrobarometer, Rori completed a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where she was affiliated with the MIT Political Experiments Research Lab and the MIT Global Diversity Lab. She has also held various affiliations with the Centre for Social Science Research since 2010.