The Centre for Social Sciences Research (CSSR) and the  Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa  (IDCPPA) at the University of Cape Town invite you to join us for a lunchtime seminar on 12 March 2024 at 12:45pm. The seminar will be presented by Prof. Roger Southall.

About the Seminar:

Would the ANC vacate office if it lost an election?

Huntington's 'turnover' test proposes that new democracies cannot be said to be consolidated until governments have twice lost office through elections once multi-party, competitive democracy has been established. Although critics have argued that his formula is too far-reaching, it seems reasonable to maintain that turnovers of office holding through elections constitute key indicators of democratization. This poses the question for South Africa, would the ANC - the handsome winner of five successive elections - hand over power peacefully if it lost an election.

The ANC is widely expected to lose its popular majority in the forthcoming 2024 election. However, because it is equally expected to remain the largest party, it will remain in government at the head of a coalition. Yet this only bounces the question of whether it would accept defeat down the road. In consequence, this paper will consider the factors likely to shape its decision: Is there a genuine commitment to liberal democracy? Are South African elections genuinely 'free and fair'? What are the costs of losing an election? Is there accountability to public opinion? How would different classes within the ANC's coalition of support react to an election loss?

Speakers

Prof. Roger Southall is an Emeritus Professor in Sociology at the University of the Witwatersrand. His books include Liberation Movements in Power: Party and State in Southern Africa, and he is co-editor of a series of books on South African elections.

 12 March 2024
 12:45 - 14:00 SAST
  CSSR Seminar Room, 4.29 Robert Leslie Social Science Building, UCT

Hosted by the Centre for Social Science Research and the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa