Prof. Beatrice Conradie Presents at Arid Zone Ecology Forum
Abstract: The 2015-2019 drought created a natural experiment in the Central Karoo which made it possible to test farmers’ awareness of drought adaptation measures. This paper presents data from balanced panel of survey data involving 40 farms over eight years. Interventions were grouped under pasture-saving practices, income diversification and animal welfare adaptations. The Karoo Management Panel (KMP) has data on six of the nine adaptations listed in the literature. Animal welfare adaptations are the lowest on farmers’ agenda, and more extension is needed in this area. KMP found an increase in on-farm diversification from 12-25% of farms, but the contribution of renewable energy and crops was limited to 18% before and during the drought. Few people took new off-farm jobs during the drought, and as the sheep enterprise shrank off-farm jobs contributed 19% more to household income. Farmers dealt with poor rangeland conditions in different ways, mostly by combining lower stocking density with more supplementary feed. Before the drought 86% of farms already stocked below the area’s official carrying capacity, and this proportion increased significantly to 93% during the drought. At the intensive margin understocking increased from 37% under to 52% under as the drought took hold. Even before the drought, 87% of farms bought feed, and this increased to 93% during the drought. The amount spent on feed rose from R122-310 per stock sheep. K-means clustering on these two strategies revealed a group of eleven farmers biased towards feeding and away from de-stocking, and this group on average made a loss during the drought while farms that followed a more balanced strategy produced positive net farm income. Detailed financial outcomes will be discussed for both groups.