The Centre for Social Sciences Research (CSSR) and the  Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa  (IDCPPA) at the University of Cape Town invite you to join us for a lunchtime seminar on 7 October 2025 at 12:45pm. The seminar will be presented by Dr Hangala Siachiwena and Patience Masi.

About the Seminar:

Malawi's 2025 Elections: Rethinking Incumbency, Turnovers, and Political Comebacks in Africa

Malawi's September 2025 elections marked one of the most remarkable episodes in African politics in recent decades. Incumbent president Lazarus Chakwera was defeated, while former president Peter Mutharika returned to office at the age of 85. Chakwera's Malawi Congress Party - which governed for 30 years under Kamuzu Banda before losing power in 1994 - had regained office in 2020 after more than a quarter century in opposition, only to be unseated again after five years. Such a rapid reversal of fortunes is unparalleled in Africa. outcome challenges assumptions prevailing about African politics: incumbents rarely lose, political comebacks are almost unheard of, and no other African country has recorded three consecutive incumbent defeats, as Malawi now has in 2014, 2020, and 2025.

This presentation draws on media reports, official election results, and Afrobarometer survey data to discuss this outcome. It examines how the collapse of the Tonse Alliance - Chakwera's coalition with his former vice president, Saulos Chilima ー undermined the incumbent's support base, and how mounting corruption scandals and deteriorating economic conditions further weakened confidence in his leadership. Existing scholarship interprets Malawian politics through the lens of ethno-regional alliances and bloc voting. Yet, while these dynamics remain important, the 2025 elections reveal that Malawians, like citizens elsewhere, are increasingly guided by expectations of a democratic dividend 一 good governance, jobs, and improved livelihoods.

Speakers

Hangala Siachiwena is a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Democracy Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa (IDCPPA) at the University of Cape Town (UCT). He completed a DPhil at UCT, focusing on how and why changes of government between political contribute parties to social policy reforms in Zambia and Malawi. He also holds an MPhil in Development Studies (UCT) and BA in Development Studies and Economics (University of Zambia).

Patience Masi is a PhD student Sociology under the IDCPPA at UCT and a Research Assistant at Atrobarometer. Her focuses political economy of domestic funding for social cash transfers using Malawi as a case study. She holds a MA in Economics from the University of Leeds and a Bachelor of Business Science degree in Economics from the University of Cape Town.

  7 October 2025
  12:45 - 14:00 SAST
   CSSR Seminar Room, 4.29 Robert Leslie Social Science Building, UCT

Hosted by the Centre for Social Science Research and the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa