The Centre for Social Sciences Research (CSSR) and the  Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa  (IDCPPA) at the University of Cape Town invite you to join us for a lunchtime seminar on 21 October 2025 at 12:45pm. The seminar will be presented by Dr. Ololade Julius Baruwa.

About the Seminar:

School dropout, child marriage, and adolescent pregnancy in Kano, Nigeria: Evidence from the 2020-2022 PMA data

Background: Transitions between school levels, particularly from primary to junior and junior to senior secondary, are critical for adolescent girls and often associated with school dropout, child marriage, and early childbearing. This study examines the relationship between school dropout and the risks of child marriage and teenage pregnancy among adolescent girls in Kano State, Nigeria.

Methods: Data were drawn from three waves of the Kano Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) survey (2020- 2022), involving 693 adolescent girls aged 15-19 years. A generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) with Poisson regression estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the associations between school dropout (before age 15) and two outcomes: child marriage and teenage pregnancy, controlling for household size, media exposure, ethnicity, residence, age, and wealth quintile.

Results: Overall, 22% of girls never attended school, 9.4% dropped out between ages 12-15, 24% experienced child marriage, and 14% had a teenage pregnancy. Dropping out before age 15 significantly increased the likelihood of child marriage (IRR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.03-3.77; p = 0.040) and teenage pregnancy (IRR = 2.11; 95% Cl: 1.11-4.01; p = 0.023). Rural residence heightened these risks, while larger household size was protective.

Conclusion: Early educational discontinuity strongly predicts child marriage and teenage pregnancy in northern Nigeria. Sustained investments in girls' education could significantly reduce these outcomes.

Speakers

Dr. Ololade Julius Baruwa is a demographer and public health researcher with expertise in adolescent sexual and reproductive health, HIV prevention, and gender-based violence in sub-Saharan Africa. He is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Cape Town's Centre for Social Science Research, where he applied advanced quantitative and computational methods to large-scale health datasets. His work focuses on generating policy-relevant evidence to improve health and social outcomes for young people in Africa.

  21 October 2025
  12:45 - 14:00 SAST
   CSSR Seminar Room, 4.29 Robert Leslie Social Science Building, UCT

Hosted by the Centre for Social Science Research and the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa