IDCPPA Briefing Paper March 2026
Author(s): Nicole Beardsworth, Mundia Kabinga, Jeremy Seekings, Michael Wahman
Unit: IDCPPA

Executive summary: 

Zambia underwent its third transition of power in 2021, following democratic transitions from ruling to opposition parties in 1991 and 2011. The administration under President Hakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND) inherited a country that had undergone a debt default in 2020, was characterised by rampant inflation, and appeared to be experiencing a broad breakdown of the rule of law and assault on democratic institutions.

As the country heads towards the 2026 elections, the Zambia Elections Research Network probed public perceptions of the last four years – including the administration’s policy choices and service delivery – and public expectations ahead of the 2026 polls. The survey asked questions about political parties and campaigns, the assessment of national conditions and government performance, institutional trust, and voting intentions. It ran from June to November 2025.

 When asked about whether their economic conditions were better or worse than 12 months ago, respondents were split, with 41% reporting that things had gotten worse, while 38% reported that their personal conditions had improved. This mirrors people’s perceptions of the broader economy, where answers were similarly polarised.

A majority of our respondents were confident that the 2026 elections would be completely free and fair (51%) and did not fear for their safety (70%), but a significant minority – especially supporters of opposition parties – had concerns about the upcoming polls. While 62% of UPND supporters replied that they expected the elections to be ‘completely free and fair’, only 36% of opposition party supporters concurred. More than one quarter (28%) of opposition party supporters said either that the elections would not be free and fair or that there would be major problems.

When asked how they planned to vote in the upcoming elections, 55% of respondents reported planning to vote for the president, 13% intended for an opposition party and – notably – 32% didn’t know or refused to answer the question. While support for the president is high, there nonetheless remains potential for a strong opposition leader to emerge and capture the substantial proportion of swing voters and reluctant respondents.

At the parliamentary level, just 33% of surveyed people planned to vote for their sitting member of parliament, while 24% would prefer the same party to put forward a different parliamentary candidate. The results were even starker at local government level, with just 15% planning to vote for their councillor, and 33% who wanted the party that holds the seat to put forward a new candidate. This underscores the importance of primary elections in the electoral process.

The Zambian opposition is fragmented but opposition supporters appear to be actively looking for a political home, while partisanship has a clearly important effect on shaping perceptions of politics, the preceding four years and the upcoming elections.