Publication Type: Journal article
Year: 2022
Author(s): Paul Revill, Ajay Rangara, Albert Makochekanwa, Amon Mpofu, Andrea L. Ciaranelloe, Andreas Jahn, Andrew Gonani, Andrew N. Phillips, Anna Bershteyn, Benson Zwizwai, Brooke  E. Nichols, Carel Pretorius, Cliff C. Kerr, Cindy Carlson, Debra Ten Brink, Edinah Mudimu, Edward Kataika, Erik Lamontagne, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Frances M. Cowan, Gerald Manthalu, Gemma Oberth, Gesine Mayer Rath, Iris Semini, Isaac Taramusi, Jeffrey  W. Eaton Jinjou Zhao, John Stover, Jose AIzazola-Licea, Katherine Kripke, Leigh Johnson, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Marelize Gorgons, Michelle Morrison, Newton Chagoma, Owen Mugurungi, Robyn M.Stuart, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Rose Nyirenda, Ruanne V.Barnabas, Sakshi Mohan, Sherrie L.Kelly, Sibusiso Sibandze, Simon Walker, Stephen Banda, R. Scott Braithwaite, Thato Chidarikire, Timothy B.Hallett, Thoko Kalua, Tsitsi Apollo, Valentina Cambiano
Unit: AARHub
Journal: The Lancet HIV

Abstract: "HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal."

Citation: Revill, P., Rangaraj, A., Makochekanwa, A., Mpofu, A. ... Oberth, G., … Cambiano, V. (2022). Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. The Lancet HIV, 9(7), e517-e520.