Examining AIDS-related Adult Mortality in the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Surveys: Employment, Earnings and Direct Mortality Costs

In the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics surveys (covering black households in the province in 3 surveys spanning 1993 to 2004), the mortality rate of 21-50 year-olds rises by 157% from 1993-1998 to 1998-2003. This paper compares this surge in mortality with the ASSA model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and finds that, while the data appear broadly representative of likely, actual mortality, non-random attrition is a concern. Preliminary findings on the labour market profile of individuals suffering premature adult mortality in the 1998-2004 period, an estimate of foregone earnings, and the direct pre-death care and burial costs associated with their deaths, are presented.